Two weeks to go and the "wave-mongering" has already started (And I love it!). You know it's close to hurricane season now. The Gulf of Mexico, although a few models have suggested something occuring, is probably not going to have something tropical in there.
If it were to happen anytime this year, that would be the place to look, but upper winds aren't going to allow anything of significance to get going down there. Along with many of the negative factors, we'll have to keep looking elsewhere. It isn't impossible, but I just don't see it this time.
I will be gone (LA and NY) for a week and a half, back just in time for Hurricane Season to start. When the season starts, I'll give my own amateur outlook for this year's season.
I'll be watching the tropics as always.
Don't take my word for it...
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.