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Area 1: As weak and disorganized as this system appears now (yes, the one northeast of Puerto Rico), Florida may eventually have to deal with system later this week. An upper-level ridge is forecast to build in after the trough lifts out...and this could lead to significant strengthening by late Thursday into Friday. Even if it does not strengthen greatly before it gets to Florida, the eventual path could take it into the GOMEX. The system could really bomb there...so I'm going to have put Florida as a tropical cyclone risk area for Friday-Saturday. Time will tell. There are also two tropical wave in the Atalntic showing some signs of organization in the East Atantic. These will both have to be monitored for development as they move further west. My main concern goes to the wave northeast of Puerto Rico for the time being, however. Kevin |