Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri May 24 2002 01:09 PM
Re: Action in the Tropics

Well, our little friend in the NW Caribbean is still there, and appears to be getting a little better organised again. It is still a very weak system, but there is some moderate convection now firing up to the east and a little to the south of the apparent centre. There is some very isolated convection west of the centre too, but not a lot. It would seem to me too that the low is drifting west at the moment. However, i am inclined to agree with NHC and the models, and reckon this system will turn to the NW during the next day or two.

As for further development... well! It really is tough to say. If the shear lets up then this system could become a TD or TS. But it needs to hold its circulation together. As long as the convection keeps trying to develop then there is the possibility of further development of this system.


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