TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002

AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATED THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FOUND A SMALL CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A
LARGE ENVELOPE...CURVED BANDS AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. DESPITE THE
EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION WILL
BE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND IS MOVING TOO FAST. THEREAFTER...IF IT
SURVIVES THE EFFECTS OF LAND...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND DECREASES ITS FORWARD SPEED. BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSIFY THE DEPRESSION SIGNIFICANTLY...MIGHT AS WELL NOT MENTION
HOW STRONG...BUT THE UNBEATABLE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL ONLY SHOWS A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OR MORE. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WEAKENS. GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED INTO TWO BRANCHES. THE
STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN...AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA OR EASTERN CUBA. THE GFDL IS IN
BETWEEN...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER CUBA AND THE
EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTING FEW DAYS AHEAD.

AT THIS TIME...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY SQUALLS
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 10.1N 61.5W 25 KTS
12HR VT 15/0600Z 10.5N 64.5W 25 KTS
24HR VT 15/1800Z 12.0N 67.5W 30 KTS
36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.5N 70.5W 40 KTS
48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.5N 73.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 17/1800Z 18.5N 76.0W 60 KTS