Brett, it happens all the time. This one is more difficult than most, not as difficult than some. If you actually carefully track the NHC course for each storm, you'll see that many end up on a completely different track than initially forecast. NHC is masterful at gradually changing the track until it matches up closely with what ends up happening. The truth is that we are only decent at guess the next 24-48 hours. After that, minor influences can make major differences in storm direction. Any forecast over 48 hours is pure speculation. That's what makes this so interesting.