you know you're desperate to see the hurricane coming your way when every little jog in your direction has you betting it's a new course. well.. much as i'd like to think i have a good bit of this storm figure out (comparatively).. little things keep happening a little different than i expect. for one, after going mostly nnw yesterday, it is going mostly wnw today. for two, the intensity right now is at marginal hurricane.. no rapid intensification.
well, right now im just going to stick with earlier hypotheses and not bother trying to calibrate what is already a crude enough forecast.
jason the met from pc, i have some questions. im fairly familiar with the global models, and mostly use them for predicting where systems will form, not how they will behave once they do. and i understand about the gfdl being a more localized, attuned tropical model. however, curious to know what to make of the nhc model suite. well, there are only about four that i bother accessing, but the bamd, bamm, a98e.. some climo model i think... that bunch.. what should i make of them? im not sure what beta advection (besides it being some thermodynamic energy transfer thing) is, or what the innate characteristics of any of the models are, but as far as knowing when the nhc suite is money and when it isnt.. how should i interpret this stuff?
anyhow.. as this system goes further west and less to the north, the thought that those SW into mexico global runs are seeing the future keeps recurring. the other thought i keep having is that this system could still be around a week from now.
asides: watch off the east coast for a hybrid storm. most of the globals have that upper system bastardi has been calling to cut off all week sending a surface reflection back to the mid atlantic.
central atlantic has an upper trough with a surface reflection.. doubt that will do anything.
still waves coming across, but environment out there is bad and shouldnt improve a whole lot.. season might be over for the southeast atlantic.
one other thing: eastpac system is trying to develop south of mexico. if it deepens, could have upstream consequences for isidore.
HF 2031z19september