notice the different flavor of the GFDL. It takes him NW, then back toward the Yucatan in a full Loop. Then to the NNE coming in the Big Bend of Fl. REalize that any deviation of this by a dgree or two could put this in Sarasota or tallahassee. But what a difference in the approach from the 12Z!! Means that the 1st trough misses and the second trough lifts hin NNE as the trough lifts towards the great lakes. BTW, the sortwave is digging pretty far south firing off t'storms near the Mexican east coast. If the ULL over the BOC fills quickly, the trough will blow thru the GOM. Cheers!! Steve H.