couple things id like to comment on:
i just got called a guru. its sort of funny to me, a guy who didnt make it in the fsu meteorology program (or at least quit while he was ahead). there was no way i'd get finished with that in four years, and didnt want to take calc 2 for a third time either.. so just skipped out. but, i know of a few people who didnt jump ship, the few and proud survivors.. what i have in enthusiasm doesnt make up for what they have in education and determination. maybe this site draws the best tropical weather discussion on the web (never have bothered with anywhere else), but we're mostly amateurs.. with degree holding exceptions like dunham(experience in mlb), kelley(generous with the knowledge in pc), and scottsvb(tampa, who apparently made it through the terrors of fsu's meteorology program, many props for that). just want that in perspective.. might be a big fish, but its a relatively small pond... the professional met. world has some very provocative and superior minds.. for hurricane forecasting names like john hope, william gray.. hey, i'd throw bastardi up there too. he's a great source. there are also those guys at the nhc this year who have made the discussions sound less like canned spam and more interesting to read.
second.. shawn, youre making noise again in self defense. hey man, we're not knocking you when we disagree, not saying that you couldnt be right.. just that we dont think you are. western gulf solution needs an initially weaker system and stronger upper low backing in from the east.. that kind of retrogression seems unlikely with the longwave pattern locking over the states. most probable event is that the storm meanders until one of these shortwaves finally draws it up, sometime next week. as a whole i'd say the chances this system gets west of 90w are about 20%, and west of 92w about 5%.. and if then it should be nosediving into the BOC. shawn really, the chances it hits texas to me are about as slim as it never making it into the gulf. thats why im discounting your ideas. not because im being mean or closed minded.
third.. jason k, if you answered, then i missed it: any more pointers on those nhc suite models? im about to lose bastardi as a primary source of thought provoking discussion, so have to come up w/ some other folks to turn to when i need guidance.
okay, another gargantuan post. maybe i should make lots of small ones instead and boost my user rating? nahh.. not the way i want to carry a rep here. just as another guy trying to get this stuff down.
HF 0105z20september