clyde w.
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 20 2002 02:26 AM
Re: my take tonight

It seems like the forecast over the next 48-72 hours is one of persistence. Will Izzy continue to head WMN-NW. The general consensus is yes, he will. I think the key moment for everyone along the Gulf coast is about 60 hours from now, give or take.

At that point, does he stall, or does his inertia carry him on that path? Is he tugged N or NE by one of the approaching troughs, or does the AVN validate and he moves WSW? It seems to me that right around the 60 hour mark, these questions are gonna start being answered one after another. Right now, and I have no compelling reason to believe this, but something about the latest GFDL run has me thinking it may be on to something. Maybe it's just the PC way that it is now incorporating all the options

Anyway, I doubt if we'll see anything new in the 11 update other than an extension of the current forecast track...persistence.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center