Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2002

the last fix from an Air Force plane near 2300 UTC reported a
minimum pressure of 981 mb. On its way home...a dropsonde launched
from the plane reported winds above the surface ranging from 90 to
95 knots. Since then... satellite images have indicated that Isidore
has become stronger as indicated by Dvorak T-numbers which have
increased to 4.5 and 5.0. Initial intensity is adjusted to 75 knots
at this time with an estimated pressure of 979 mb. The next plane
will be in the area at 0600 UTC.
All parameters appear to be favorable for strengthening. Isidore is
becoming a large cyclone with an expansive outflow...feeder bands
and is moving over the higher upper-oceanic heat content of The
Basin. In addition...SHIPS model indicates that 4 of 5 required
parameters for rapid intensification are met. Therefore...Isidore is
forecast to become a major hurricane in the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico.
A hint of the eye can be observed from both Havana and Key West
radars. These observations combined with satellite fixes give an
initial motion of 305 degrees at 7 knots...which is basically the
same as 6 hours ago. No change in track is expected for the next 48
hours and Isidore will be spending Friday crossing the westernmost
portion of Cuba. Thereafter...the forecast track becomes highly
uncertain. Global models slow the system down to a halt in the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico as steering currents collapse due to the
passage of a mid-level trough to the north. At longer range...all
models move the hurricane on a general northward track except the
NCEP Global Model. The latter moves the hurricane southwestward
toward the Bay of Campeche. This solution is probably due to a
strong low which the model develops just north of the Bahamas. It is
tempting to go with the NCEP model solution since this model has
been very reliable. But for now...it is better to keep the hurricane
with a northwestward drift beyond 48 hours until the steering
pattern becomes more clear.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/0300z 21.0n 82.5w 75 kts
12hr VT 20/1200z 21.7n 83.5w 85 kts
24hr VT 21/0000z 22.5n 84.5w 95 kts
36hr VT 21/1200z 23.0n 85.5w 100 kts
48hr VT 22/0000z 23.5n 86.5w 105 kts
72hr VT 23/0000z 24.0n 87.0w 105 kts

Hmmmmm......