I don't disagree with you but the last TS (Hanna) in the GOM went more west than most people predicted... and as I watched the system change to that slight westerly component, the probablities kept inching up more to the west over time... and it all started just like what's going on with Izzy... small increments.... now does 12% probability means that much... no, but if the trend continues it certainly might mean something in the future...

what you're looking for are consistent trends over time... will they change, of course... they'll go up and down with time... however, if they don't, then you need to take them a little more seriously... but they have to start with something