HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Sep 20 2002 12:53 AM
Re: Rick (a fun diversion)

lets do a quick math problem: assuming historical records are on the mark, the u.s. has been hit by three category five hurricanes since 1935. this is a small sample, but we'll use the strike frequency anyway. the spacing between labor day and camille was 34 years, between camille and andrew was 23. all three hit south florida or the gulf coast, with one landfall at cat 5. now, all three were small, compact hurricanes, with extremely tight cores.. damage was catastrophic within the eyewall but not too bad outside. for the sake of argument, lets say the cat 5 severe damage swath is 50 miles wide.. possibly being liberal. okay, so you here's the formula:
2150 miles of coastline from brownsville to hatteras.. where a five could possibly hit. we'll give mobile the benefit of the doubt and say it has five times the likelihood (which it obviously doesnt) of being hit than this stretch of coast in general. okay, so 2150/5=430 miles. now, a cat four will affect a random 50 mile section of this 430 miles every 30 years or so..
so 430/50=8.6% of the coastline.. 91% chance your section isnt hit. make this a stacked odds permutation and you have to go seven times before getting the odds to 51.7%.. near even. now, we have seven installments of 30 years to wait.. thats 210 years.
so, with mobile given an especially weighted, unscientific chance of getting hit, you only have to wait just over two centuries to see a category five come calling. so, all you have to do is keep making this forecast for every gulf storm for until the year 2212 and youve got an even chance of getting it right, once.
heheh... now that ive taunted the storm by saying how statistically improbable it is that youre going to get a cat five, id be shaking in my boots if i was in mobile.
HF 0446z20september



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