http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrwv.html

Trof is already gaining latitude as it lifts out. Animate this link (set to 30 as always for complete effect). The NHC is now suggesting that a 3rd trof may miss it too - and it ain't even on the map yet. Shawn - you should be particularly excited with the 00z run of the UK Met. Goes to show none of us are out of the woods. Further, the European still has a Cat 3-4 off the Western YP by THURSDAY of next week! Can you believe that???!!!! Almost all other global models - except the GFDL and CMC are now in the W/WSW camp. Current tradjectory is NW as evident by the radar links. NHC guidance is shifted west.

This is probably the most interesitng Hurricane I've tracked in my years. One positive note, the experimental windspeed product at NHC isn't still going up at 72 hours as of the latest run. That's somewhat encouraging. 115 can be handled. 150 is another ball of wax entirely. Shear has increased to 20knots probably due to the ULL to the NW. If my Bastardi 101 is right, that puts it in a shear zone quadrant rather than a ventilation one.

If the majority of the Global tracks are hitting on the right scenario, we should all be in great shape for supplies. There will be plenty of time to shop and have everything replenished in potentially affected areas - especially if we're still tracking Isidore NEXT WEEKEND! Imagine that.

In the words of the immortal Rick Flair from days gone by, "Now we go to school."

Steve