A couple of random thoughts to pass along. Rick, I hate to burst the bubble. SSTs in the Gulf seem unable to sustain a Cat5, probably not even a Cat4. While Cat3's don't seem as exciting, one this large could pose major problems.
As far as track goes, I'm getting more comfortable with the idea of a Panhandle hit. For lack of a better bullseye, I'll put it on Jason Kelley's forehead. Jason can now breath a sigh of relief, as Izzy should be many miles away. The models are converging on the idea of a loop-di-loop in the Gulf, before a move NNE into Big Bend-Panhandle. I don't really buy the idea that a storm of Izzy's size will be dancing the polka. Nevertheless, I think the general idea is looking good. Couple that with climatology and common sense, and Izzy will eventually start moving more N, then NE over time. I really don't see a lot of compelling reasons to move him to the west, except maybe to prove to Shawn that he really doesn't want to see a major storm up close and personal.
I'm out!