(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:15 AM
Intensity changing forecast?

It seems that every model I have looked at has IZZY at pressures well above what he actually is. GFDL seems to be the closest on intesity; but even it, surprisingly enough, is low compared to what Isidore has actually done. Combine that with what appears to be a pretty well defined front coming into the GOM, I think Izzy's track is going to start getting more muddled again after 18-24 hours and not 36-72 hours. Thinking that Isidore does not quite as far west and may not do a southern loop but a turn from WNW-NW-N-NE sometime in the period. Same result but probably a day or two less in the Gulf. I guess it is still possible that the storm tries to dive south into the Yucatan to miss the front. Just not quite sold that a storm of that intensity will take a southern dive. Granted Mitch is a prime example of that. It seems NE may end up being the path of least resistance.

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