Fri Sep 20 2002 11:21 AM
cat 5.. ack

let me start by saying, all the cat 5 talk is getting a bit old. i know rick is kidding, but some of you who dont have your kidder credentials sound like youre seriously considering it. what youre doing equates to betting a magnitude 9 earthquake will shake california next month. not likely. back on page 7 of this thread i made a post that talks about how remarkable and uncommon a cat 5 event is. and all of those things jason posted are ensemble models.. blends of different runs of the same model.. it actually makes them bland and none shows a cat 5, more like a tropical storm.. but fairly good agreement that the florida panhandle gets the storm. so really, get off the serious talk about it. way too much hype, unrealistic expectations.
anyhow, isidore is getting pretty close to major hurricane strength.. still no eye showing on satelite. intensification is probably slowed a bit by land interaction... should be there later today. speaking of slowed, the storm looks to have slowed down even more. steering is already weakening.
upper pattern around the storm is in transition. the upper low to the west is sandwiched between the storm and the max from the longwave.. forecast to weaken. it may be adding that slightly more northern component we are seeing today. back to the east the new upper low.. that cutoff from a trough split.. is already becoming apparent. this is the one that is going to slow isidore down and provide much of the movement control. it would have to become very strong to push isidore west very much.
surface weather in the atlantic is a topic of interest too..
anybody notice the new invest? yep, 91L is out in the central atlantic. it's an old surface reflection of the former TUTT, drifting northward. big surface high to the north should stop it in the subtropics and keep its movement erratic.. basically the same that happens to isidore. none of the models intensify it much, though.
northwest of there, above the new cut off low.. convection bursting from the frontal remnants, and that old former hanna low that sort of sloppily lingered in the area. this will be the system that runs west under the ridge, maybe causes further buckling upstream. only nogaps intensifies to much of anything, but could be a weak little coast runner from hatteras to new england early next week.
western gulf: surprised by how well it's supporting convection. there is a disturbance in the gulf of tehuantepec being drawn across toward the BOC to join this conglomeration.. if it persists it will have to be watched. btw, throw the current model runs out if something starts developing down there. chaos theory, baby.
african waves: the deep westerlies down there are still hanging around, but weaker. actually a narrow ridge axis at low latitudes trying to pop back up. wave at 45w and the other near 30w have a decent amount of energy.. a few of the globals want to resolve something out here. pretty rough still.. i dont see much development in the next couple of days.
there... wonderfully complex issues in the atlantic. probably another development for next week too. K storm is probably in the works.
aite, nuther big post.
HF 1513z20september

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