I'm still hanging. I'm guessing everyone is getting HIGHLY IRRITATED that half the web is crashed right now. NOAA loops (down); Goes 8 (unresponsive); National Data Buoy Center (slow as molasses). You can't get anything right now. As to the ULL having the effect of pulling the storm northward as some suggested in the previous thread, watch Joe B's tropical update and he'll explain why that isn't likely to happen. 6z GFDL runs it Iz towards LA/MS, still giving it that loop near onto the northern end of the YP. It's changed its shorts more time than an old lady with diarhea.

Anyway, those medium range composite models that Jason posted look fairly legitimate to me. It's one of those cases where it doesn't matter how something gets there as long as it gets there. I think a NW FL landfall is pretty reasonable considering the circumstances and season, but will that be in 3 days, 5 days, 7 days or 10 days? I can't say. However, if you look at the Long Range composites of the same models, they do "other stuff" with Izzy. You can go back and play with it should you so choose.

I gotta admit that I'm getting tired of sleeping 5 hours a night.

Steve