izzy's getting pushed only a little, staying between upper lows. big question now is how far west the storm gets before the ridge to the east rebuilds and hooks it up with a shortwave. my thoughts have changed just a little.
three major differences with the nhc official:
1)system will probably move right along the yucatan coast.. i mean something like 20 miles inland to offshore. land intereaction has a history of slowing the forward movement (it took a really long time to cross western cuba yesterday).. think the nhc track is too fast. not thinking the storm will get west of 92w, but yeah probably 90. think the storm will wobble along its path, but smoothed should resemble nhc.
2)intensity.. naturally mine is lower, since i think the storm will be interacting with land more. think it stays in the 2-3 range through 72hr, except maybe it gets to 4 right before approaching the coast tonight.
3)think after 60hr the wsw component is gone, storm should be moving north of west again.
my endgame has changed too.. shifting it westward, focused on the central gulf. se louisiana to the western panhandle now. expect the storm to bend north, but northeast before reaching the coast. expect it to come ashore at category three/four on thursday or friday.
other systems:
1)kyle. should be fully tropical later today, stall and move erratically through 36hr, then next week start sw and eventually west. a couple of the models have it getting under the newfoundland wheel and accelerating west, as lili did in 1990. not quite ready to take it that far, but suffice to say it could be pretty close to bermuda by the middle of next week.
2)92L. this should be a depression tomorrow. it is moving west fairly quickly, and think it will develop slowly as a result. probably enter the caribbean late monday/early tue as tropical storm lili. whether or not it kills itself with forward speed i'm not quite sure. if it doesnt, will be threatening the western caribbean or southeast u.s. a week from now.
3)the bastardi pinwheel. surface low pressure is disorganized and not moving much, but convection has shifted northward yesterday and something may start to gel tomorrow east of the carolinas. this seems less probable than it did thu or fri, but still a chance it could make some late hour organization as it accelerates ahead of a trough off the east coast. as the upper low decays the area southwest of it up to its remnant axis will have to be watched for further activity.
4)east atlantic wave. basically three possibilites. one, it develops and recurves well out to sea early next week. two, it doesnt develop. three, it moves westward and then develops later next week closer to the islands and becomes another nuisance.
so there, two active systems, maybe one or two more before all's said and through with this span. probably a major hurricane landfall between morgan city and fort walton beach as well.
HF 1603z21september