that nasa interactive closeup satelite is really nifty. you can really pinpoint things with it.. this pertains to lili. here's my philosophy: the nature of the system, sheared as it is, has been to have a broad circulation open on the west side, and have it temporarily tighten into a small vortex whenever convection is bursting on the east side. ive been seeing this for days.. a small vortex will emerge from the west side, seem to loop under.. then another will run out as the convection cycles. maybe it's the same little thing doing cycloid loops over and over within the broader circulation.. not saying i know. but this is what it's essentially been all along.. now that it's not racing and loses the translational motion supercharged flight level winds.. they have dropped it to a 'tropical wave'. i do think that some exception needs to be made for cases such as this.
anyhow, still cant say if this will ever organize.. not only has it been consistently nudging its way into the retreating, now reorganizing upper trough.. but its own anticyclone has been lagging back and adding to the southerly shear.
should be near jamaica tomorrow. interaction with land might break the status quo.. whether that be to cause the center to redevelop in a better place or just kill it outright.
HF 2240z26september