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i see a few rogue thunderstorms trying to form along swirl bands west of the center.. despite the shear. THAT'S new. shear doesnt look nearly as overwhelming as earlier, and the center is definitely not racing anymore. dont think it will intensify much for the next 24-36.. once shear lets up i'd imagine it will deepen at a more typical pace. long range stuff is a mix of into mexico and into the gulf... if you discount the globals that keep taking it north across haiti (discounted). i'm guessing it will skirt jamaica as a tropical storm tomorrow night and be in deepening mode closer to the yucatan by late sunday. dont buy the fast-west option. intensity and evolution of synoptic features vary on different models, so i wont bother making any best guess tracks, just the general corruption of the nhc official. by the way.. if shear and upwelling dont kill kyle.. i dont know what will. wave off of africa.. plenty of convection, but not much rotation to it. slow developer if anything, and history favors quick recurvature if it develops very far east of the islands. fsu.. louisville...!!! those are the kind of upsets i passionately dislike.. HF 0405z27september |