Trying again, system ate my first post...

I believe it will go further east...four reasons

1. GFDL has been incrementally shifting east last three (or four) runs

2. NHC 98 for first time is east of GFDL--a big shift

3. Current motion is NW as Lili moves past Jamaica

4. Lili has been performing ala Isadore...hung up over land, slight shift south---but over Jamaica, not Yucatan, ie, further east (a teleconnect type argument ala Joe)

also--as was mentioend (and I was typing as my post vanished!) climatology will favor a quicker recurve at a lower latitude.

I would say NO is the FURTHEST west I might expect to see Lili go...more likely MS/AL/Fla Panhandle, with Big Bend the furthest east.

Agree it will be a a major storm....

IHS,

Bill

ps--NHC says system out by CV better organized..it was at the time of the TWO but not now! Torn to shreds, may come out on the other side....