lili: intensity forecast coming off o.k. so far.. a little low, as it were. 11pm last night had the storm at 80mph/983mb.. actual was 85mph/978mb. just now i had guessed the storm would be 85/978.. it is 90/971. staying within my 15mph/8mb margin of error so far.. barely. sticking with beaumont tx, with any corrections east.. not by much. not betting on this one really getting new orleans. it is going to cross the lowland western tip of cuba fairly soon.. some higher terrain will be just north of the center and we may see a slight weakening. as for the storm treading tainted waters, it is going right along the path isidore took.. which should begin to diverge some later today. as far as oceanic heat content, i remember the nhc guys saying isidore could move very slowly and not have to worry about upwelling due to the deep layer of warm water. my philosophy is, if isidore couldnt ruin it all, moving at about 5mph, why should lili moving at 13?
kyle has returned to tropical storm strength.. nhc had overdone the weakening.. as some uncontaminated quickscat vectors were as high as 45kt. nhc likes to underrate whenever possible, so kyle is assigned a 35kt intensity. been moving erratically this morning (a cyclonic loop).. now drifting nw in the latest frames. heavy subsedence descending from the north for another 24hr, then shear lightens and atmospheric moisture increases.. so i expect kyle to change little in the next 24, then slowly intensify and recover. with vertical depth a motion generally to the southwest should convene.
east of bermuda the part of kyle that merged into the front is an e-w elongated low pressure area... based on the convection it is generating and the fairly sharp nature of the axis at the surface i'd say it has a fair chance at development.
94L is still there, and now past the harshest shear. elongated n-s.. hard to say which part of its axis is dominant. expect this to slowly develop now, as it has survived and is on the back side of the upper trough axis.
that small rotation i mentioned yesterday 400mi east of trinidad has convection to its north now.. not well defined, but conditions aloft not wholly unfavorable. dont know what to expect here. nhc is recognizing the low but not saying one thing or another about it.
wave 500mi east of the cape verdes is now heading into 94L's shear axis. some convection with the itcz.. but no time to organize.
HF 1525z01october