Agreed they threw out the chance of any northward bend over the storms last 24 hrs. Seems unusual considering that a very large populated area prone to flooding from hurricanes, and extremly hard to clear the people out of, won't be passed until the last day(24 hrs) before landfall, even by their own math. What a risk! Don't even want to imagine a Cat3 doing an Izzy move at the last moment on New Orleans. Who's going to listen to a TS warning?

From the 5pm diss.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP LILI ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 48 HR.

South-central Louisiana? Then why not include New Orleans?
Like I said above: WHAT A RISK

Joe in Jax