you central gulf coasters are really harping on this thing turning north and hitting new orleans or something. as if you havent had enough fun this year. youd need a pretty doggone weak ridge to get that to happen.. i just dont see it. the hurricane is pumping it up, and a trough is locked in the western US.. nothing in the atmosphere is indicating the ridge should weaken. the models taking it further east are the statistical leaning ones.. which know an east-west ridge this time of year along the northern gulf coast usually wont extend as far west or as strong. but it is, in fact, building its influence westward thanks to lili. staying with beaumont/port arthur, or maybe just east of there in cameron parish landfall. as far east as i can conceive it coming is atchafalaya bay/morgan city. think galveston/houston is too far west.. left side of the storm and shouldnt see much.
so far my intensity track is too low. fresh after isidore i'm ready to play it cautious on that note. the 140mph hurricane i have at landfall is pretty fierce.. and closer than expected at this point. if that official forecasted 120mph 'cane comes in count it a blessing. landfall best guess is thursday late afternoon. if i was in new iberia, jennings, crowley, lake charles.. over to the sabine pass area.. i'd be getting everything ready ASAP.
HF 2258z01october

for all you armchair quarterbacks out there who like to stay on topic:
go bengals, 2002 super bowl champs.