THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY PACKED AND STRONGLY AGREE ON A
LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 42
HOURS. OF COURSE... JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF LILI CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA...AND A WOBBLE
TO THE EAST WOULD TAKE THE POWERFUL HURRICANE CLOSER TO THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE...WHILE THE
INNER CORE CONVECTION AND THE EYE CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
LILI ALREADY HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE AND NOW THAT
THE EYEWALL HAS DECREASED FROM 35 NMI DOWN TO 17 NMI... SOME
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SHORTLY AND CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE AND EVEN PROBABLE THAT LILI
COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT AROUND 110 KT BETWEEN THE 12 AND
24 HOURS TIME PERIODS...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT. THIS
INTENSITY SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY ASSESSED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE LILI WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT
MAKES LANDFALL.