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ah, wouldnt go so far as that. the century is still quite young, indeed. btw steve my intensity forecast has been consistently too low. should be 105mph, 963mb right now if i was verifying.. 15mb and mph too low. incedentally i had it at the current numbers.. 120mph/948mb.. at 11pm eastern tonight. dont think the dry air entrainment will cause much of a problem, there isnt a heck of a lot of subsidence.. and what is there is mostly off to the left of the path. my beaumont/sabine pass landfall point is going to be too far west. looks like it's going in near the cameron/vermillion parish line. jennings, crowley, abbeville look to take the hardest hits.. core of the strongest winds should come inland between lake charles and lafayette. may be hurricane force winds as far inland as alexandria. the landfall zone isnt a heavily populated area, so total storm damage shouldnt be as high as if the storm went in right over port arthur or new iberia. kyle.. where is that westerly push under the ridge? storm hasnt moved much in the last three days.. thought deepening would fix that. the official still takes it sw eventually.. will see. HF 1540z02october |