11AM update

Lili has made landfall as a category two storm, after being a strong category four yesterday. This is incredibly interesting, and plenty of studys I'm sure will go into what happened here with Lili. It's also very lucky that it didn't make landfall as a stronger system. God has blessed the folks in Louisiana for the most part. There is damage, no doubt, but not as bad as it could have been.

Hype yesterday was intense, for good reason, it was a big storm, and every inch of movement was being analyzed and even the slightest hint of trouble was extrapolated. Nail biting moments I'm sure for emergency management and folks in weather and at the Hurricane Center.

As for why it weakened suddenly, I am not so sure . It could have been the shear, the water temps, the elongation, or a combination of all the above, perchance sprinkled with a miracle as well. All the best to our friends in Lousiana! You have dodged yet another bullet in two weeks time. I hope the damage that did occur was minimal. Some areas, I'm sure, will have a lot to clean up.

Currently Lili is moving inland, and has dropped to category 1 status, causing some wind damage and rain. It is still moving very rapidly. Hopefully quickly away so cleanup can commence.

Kyle is still around. Say hello!

Original Update

Good morning, some good news to pass along.

Hurricane Lili has experienced a little shear overnight and has been downgraded to a category 3, and is moving west away from the New Orleans area which a few people voiced concerns over last night. However, it still is a major storm and is heading to the Central Louisiana coast.

The eye became ragged and open on the south overnight as the storm got elongated north and south. As it makes landfall today it will still give a farily large storm surge and come with wind damage. As for intensity we'll have to watch it hour by hour.

More to come during the day.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]