Always take them when you can get them, an easy 3 but never hang your whole game on a FG.

You put it away when you can, because often even sure things aren't on the football field.

As for the tropics..

My problem is that although pressures are low that front is barreling down and it seems that the environment down there isn't very conducive to a system getting itself together the strongest convection keeps blowing off.

Think a bending track like Michelle is more likely...or just offshore.

Personally I'd like to see a Caribbean Hurricane the following week or two ... after the big front or two pass and some moisture stays down there and there is more time for something to develop and move north.