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mjo negative phase is here, so says the daily graphic. as you'd expect, a couple of suspect areas in the caribbean, though no invest as of yet. since eastpac activity started around the 21st, i'd say caribbean activity is imminent.. if the mjo movement delay is its usual few days behind in the atlantic. kenna a category four. presentation not as good as earlier, probably eyewall contractions. going to hammer the area near cabo corrientes early saturday, and probably be up in southeast texas late sunday/early monday. if enough of a low survives, possibly have a depression or weak storm moving northeast near the texas coast. definitely a lot of rain on the way. another noreaster type storm set to form near the bahamas next couple of days as well. probably some hybrid features. this is probably the last gasp of the season. as steve said, maybe a storm or two to go. HF 1755z24october |