Yep HF, this season is over except for a gale-center that tries to become tropical.

El Nino is finally looking more mature, the tongue of warm water is almost completely "connected" to the SA coast, we now need some Kelvin Waves to spread the warm waters in Nino 3.4 more to the east. Bastardi had an interesting comment regarding the SOI values in his post today, he said the values are simlar to 86-86, 93-94, and 69-70 simply because the hurricane season was active this year. He also mentioned those winters were all problematic, but they were also late starters that didn't really rev-up until mid December.

As for Gray's 2002 verification, it should be interesting to see what he says about this year, it was a bust for him in a few aspects. Then again, this hurricane season drove everybody in circles, one way or the other.

As for 2003, it is too early to nail any exact numbers. However, another poster (TWW) pointed out (on another board) that the number of models progging warm ENSO conditions in the Pacific are dwindling with each run. I think the bottom line is that this El Nino won't be long-lived after it peaks. As for the CPC model, I say "bullshit" to that. Another warm phase developing in the summer of 2003, not at all. El Nino's aren't active during the summer months, the fall and winter are the prime times for El Nino development. I'm thinking that neutral or very, very weak warm ENSO conditions are likely for the peak of the 2003 hurricane season. A slow starter? Yes. Could another rough season occur? Yes. I should also note that the QBO will be easterly next year, which could keep major hurricane activity below average if El Nino conditions are any stronger than I project them to be during the peak of the season.
So, I have provided GUESS for the 2003 season:
10 NS
5 H
2 IH
NOT my forecast, I will wait until early May to release that.

Enjoy the winter weather, after all, it's the only weather we've got for now. Is that too Bastardi-ish?