(Weather Master)
Fri Dec 06 2002 05:52 PM
Gray's 2003 season forecast it out!

Here are some observations on this forecast:
1. I'm going to come out and say this right away--from the reading of the factors, 2003 seems to have the earmarks of a dangerous hurricane season. The easterly QBO and few other factors with only very slight negative influenes will occur.
2. This forecast has also shown some signs of being conservative, especially with the development of a La Nina. There are some many factors, especially the increasing trade winds in the Pacifc, a developing high in the Pacific, and the upwelling under the eq. Pacific. The forecast stated these factors all favor the development of a La Nina by next summer--true--but the forecast only includes neutral conditions. HDP is already 100, which is high compared to the average of 71.

So, it appears we may finally be in for a season that is more in line 1996, 1998, 1999. Many people have consistently forecasted the US East Coast to get pounded. Well, 2003 may finally have to stuff to "get it done", so to speak. If the pattern is right, this could be a very bad season.

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