hey, the graycast and mine are somewhat similar. 12-8-3 and 13-7-3. honestly don't have much confidence from this far out, i'm hinging mostly on ENSO being neutral and the PDO phase locked in for the next couple of decades to edge the numbers up.. along with the sst profile in the atlantic being more or less above the long term average in recent years.
the numbers in recently have been well above the long term average, but considering the better ability to detect and classify storms than in years past i'm not as ready to call recent years unprecedented. i mean, willie mays was the first truly legendary black baseball player, unless you consider that many in the negro leagues before went unnoticed.
there was something in the graycast that annoyed me.. a reference to lili having been a major landfalling hurricane up there with opal, fran and bret, of recent years. lili came in as a weak 2, if you want to count it for the fact that it HAD BEEN major, better count t.s. isidore, floyd, t.s. mitch, georges, bonnie, and bertha, etc..
of course the same little blurb about us being in a new era of increased storm activity is there, but as 2002 continued the trend of normal to above normal activity but no bit hit. the increased chances of major hurricane landfall are noted as usual, when the season forecast is above average.. and as usual you could probably say that no major hurricanes will hit the u.s. next year and turn out right. when you think about it.. add the damage up from all the landfalling major hurricanes to hit the u.s. in the last 10 years and it's about the same as what the tropical storms in the last 2 years did. if you want to call something a new, unprecedented era of hurricane activity, i'd start with that ridiculous fact.
HF 1844z07december