Not sure I really trust any of the latest model runs. I've noticed the last few years that they do not handle multiple tropical systems in Atlantic and Gulf at the same time very well. Will have to see what happens with Grace. I think Grace will determine if and when Fabian turns north or not. Does not look like any of the 12Z runs handled Grace very well. I am very skeptical of GFDL in this situation. It has not seemed to perform well in the past. The GFS insisting on some due west and even some southerly movemnet is enough to make me be wary.
Even with what I just said, the current NHC forecast seems very reasonable through 72 hours. Beyond that will be interesting to see if the ridge does weaken enough for an early turn or if the US East coast will get a scare.