Kevin
(Weather Master)
Fri Dec 26 2003 12:09 AM
2004 hints...

thought i'd repost what i posted in the previous thread...seems that no one got to read it.

developed an impulse to post this from gray's 2004 forecast...

(6) - November SLP (7.5-22.5°N, 125-175°W) (+) -2.6SD
Predictor 6. November SLP in the Subtropical NE Pacific (+)

(7.5-22.5°N, 125-175°W)
This feature is also strongly related to the following year's August-September sea level pressure in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. High pressure in this area correlates with low sea level pressure in the tropical Atlantic and easterly anomalies at 200 mb during the following August through September period. According to Larkin and Harrison (2002), high pressure in this area appears during most winters preceding the development of a La Niņa event. High pressure in this region forces stronger trade winds in the east Pacific which increases upwelling and helps initiate La Niņa conditions which eventually enhance Atlantic hurricane activity during the following summer. In addition, this predictor correlates with low geopotential heights at 500 mb throughout the tropics the following year which is also favorable for more hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

this factor, which is negative 2.6, looks to be a VERY strong inhibiting factor on next year's hurricane activity assuming it actually holds a correlation next year. you all know what happens when the pressures in the tropics are sky high-no organized convection can develop. combine this with the possible arrival of an el nino. things don't look real hot for 2004 imo. oddly enough, all of gray's analog years with "similar conditions" had one major storm strike somewhere. does seem like next year could be the type where we have a lot of nothing with the exception of one storm that breaks through and becomes a problem.

will see

^^^first paragraph is from gray's prelim. 2004 forecast



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