phil, seemed like a good pop-culture pun reference for a minute, but then i thought of the emaciated look the disturbance has a picture of michael stipe came up and.. ech, now i don't like looking at it.
you may have ruined it for me, but i still owe you a beer if you get your june 14 system.
it's probably going to burst some overnight, slowly organize and such. one good several-hour burst would give us a tropical storm. once the overnight land breeze kicks up and the diurnal convection onland dies out, it should get more inflow and perhaps that will be enough to do it.
still going to keep it around 40% for making t.s., it has some going for it, but time and shear will probably not permit it being more than a very minimal system. we're all thinking rain...
one other thing of interest. ssts in the east atlantic subtropics and near europe are showing stronger positive anomalies.. think the implications of that may be a stronger azores high and more of a tendency for negative NAO, as we go into summer.
HF 0205z14june