I didn't mean to imply that the EU would get hit by a hurricane or tropical storm. But anything extratropical could easily be curving in from the south rather than from the west as usual. The SSTA's on the eastern side of the pond bear watching.

As for the SOI, should it happen to stay as far negative as it has the last few days over the next 2-3 weeks, we're going to have to start thinking along the lines of El Nino. I don't see it, but it can't discounted either. The Pacific is decidedly neutral, but when the SOI is at -42 in June, it can't be completely ignored. The SOI was very negative in April, reversed back to positive in May, and has reversed again the last week or so to sharply negative. For the climate buffs, here's a little note from Joe B about the the upcoming few days. He's out of town until Wed. and is beginning to hint that he might have to hedge his bet on a +NAO and neutral SOI for the year. He's giving a headsup (sorta) that the Western Gulf would be the next place to watch. It should be faiirly wet in the deep south in the meantime as moisture from dying fronts and the SW Atlantic Ridge.

While the current run of the models of the next 10-15 days is really right down the pipe for a pretty fair score for June, one can not assume anything in this business. I am concerned about the SOI tanking the way it is. Just because it has done this before and come back, does not mean it has to this time. I am still on the road, but return to town Wednesday and will be able to spend the time needed to decide if such things as my hurricane idea and summer forecast needs a closer look. But one thing is for sure, the resumption of bulldog tactics starts Wednesday.

Now that does not mean I am not looking now, but one always prefers home court advantage if one has to make a stand.

Zone 7,8,11,12. Trouble with T. The problem now is that the push from the west in the subtropics stops the trof splitting that occurs when ridges can pump over the subtropics behind any northern branch features. We see the drag of northern branch features that leave pieces behind, but now they are being influenced by whats drifting in from behind. In the meantime, the pulse down in the SOI is not able to dislodge the southwest atlantic ridge. So one sees the fight going on here.. partially recruved typhoon showing us a ridge fairly far west in the Pacific...support downstream for the mean trof, both by the late spring wetness and now blocking coming back across Greenland, the SOI breaking through from the west south of 30 north, and the ridge off the south atlantic coast supported by a myriad of ideas that have been looked at over the last couple of months, which if reviewed now, would simply be bloviating.

But why lump these guys together. Cause a heck of alot of rain may fall here the next 7-10 days. Think what is going on....fronts can get in there ( witness right now), deep tropical moisture from two sources, one the atlantic ridge, the other the mean trof which basically is an extension from northern Europe back through the lakes and then tailing southwest, and the dark horse for 12 and 8, the tropics.

Now the only player on the field, and it can be argued, this is the 3rd string water boy, is the wave over central America. The idea now is that as next week goes on, this works its way into the western gulf and that we have to watch for it trying to get a hybridish type look. Again, like the previous 2 systems, its a case trying to nail a pulse, which because of disruptions in the SOI may not be there now. But the early season has never been one to have the negative SOI cause a development problem and quite the contrary, may be a positive factor in that it can supply the spark that can get things started. Enough on that for now. Suffice it say, the next 10 days have big ticket wet written all over then here.

FWIW, Zone 12 is Texas, 8 is LA/MS/AL/AR/TN.

Have a good weekend.

Steve