>>Back on topic, what's up with the strongly negative SOI?

My opinion is that it's got more to do with the Super Typhoon, 98W invest and whatever the new one is called (if it's not the same one). That's preliminary of course.

>>Joe B's been on top of it, but other than that, I'm not hearing/reading anything. This isn't going to tip 2004 into an El Nino, is it? Thought that was 3-4 months away.

Too early to tell. In an earlier post in this thread, Cycloneye and I agreed that we didn't think El Nino was imminent. Neither of us sees any warm pulses in the western ENSO zones, but we could expect to see some type of measurable reaction if it stays as strongly negative as it has been.

>>Anyhoo, I just gotta ask...Is Rick gonna get his CAT V in Mobile Bay this summer/fall? (JK)

I think he's in one of the hotspots. Rick has as good of a chance as anyone to see a bunch of action this year. Time will tell.

>>One last question, What about JB's teleconnections? I think he's a week off, but then again, I could be wrong. Next week in the gulf????

The pulse teleconnection doesn't work when the SOI is negative IMHO. He's trying to say it still might, but I have to disagree. I think the basin will be ripe, but I'd bet there's a close in EPAC or Mexican pulse up in tropical moisture. The only wrinkles in the lines on some of the models (and I think it was NOGAPS and maybe UKMET or CMC) were pretty close to the Texas Coast. So if something's coming up, it might be some monsoonal moisture from Mexico. I can't say one way or the other, but that would be my guess.

Steve