James88
(Weather Master)
Tue Jun 22 2004 03:41 PM
Re: cat 5 Rick

I will agree that the world is on a warming trend, but I also agree that it goes in cycles. At the moment we just seem to be in a particularly fast upward trend. Here are some facts:-

-Since the beginning of the 20th century, the mean surface temperature of the earth has increased by about 1.1º F (0.6°Celsius).
-Over the last 40 years, which is the period with most reliable data, the temperature increased by about 0.5 º F (0.2-0.3°Celsius).
-Warming in the 20th century is greater than at any time during the past 400-600 years.
-Seven of the ten warmest years in the 20th century occurred in the 1990s. 1998, with global temperatures spiking due to one of the strongest El Niños on record, was the hottest year since reliable instrumental temperature measurements began.

Notice that most of these observations have been observed within the last 150 years. To get a good idea of the forces at work, we would need to be looking at a time scale of thousands of years. The evidence we have of the past has shown that temperature can rise and fall quite quickly, and has done for millions of years.

Global warming is definately real, but for the time-being, the sort of catastrophic weather that appeared in TDAT will not be becoming commonplace.



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