James88
(Weather Master)
Tue Jun 22 2004 08:55 PM
Re: off NC???

Following on from the earlier posts regarding E. Pacific activity vs. Atlantic activity - the NOAA released their experimental outlook for the E. Pacific a few days ago:-

There is a 45% probability of a below normal tropical eastern North Pacific hurricane season during 2004, a 45% probability of near-normal season, and only a 10% probability of an above-normal season

The 2004 tropical eastern North Pacific outlook calls for 13-15 tropical storms (average is 15 to 16), with 6-8 becoming hurricanes (average is 9), and 2-4 becoming major hurricanes (average is 4 to 5). This predicted activity is based on an expected continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through August, combined with the overall reduced hurricane activity observed since 1995.

This could be the signal for an active Atlantic season, and when you consider that the E. Pacific has so far only had one named storm (compared to the 2-3 that have normally occured by now) it makes you wonder whether there will be a strong link this year.



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