Kevin & Rob, great posts. Steve H. made I think an excellent point about SE Fla. In JBs "analog" years, 1960 & 1992 each had SE Fla taking CAT IV hits. (or CAT V for Andrew). Donna did the recurve thingy and landfalled in NC and LI, and Andrew chugged west. As JB pointed out, every area on the East Coast and Gulf is at increased risk this year, just some more than others.

My area seems to be ranked next to last in terms of risk (fortunately), but Donna and Gloria from Joe's analogs hit LI very hard. So who's to say?

I also note in Rob, Jason & Kevin's forecast, the Virginia to NY and NY to Maine regions are not expected to see any landfalls, although they do allude to a near-miss for Cape Cod (which by definition would probably also be a near miss for LI, unless the storm was not in the process of recurving at the time).

Looks like we're looking at a whole-lotta-nuttin' for the next week-10 days, so the timing of JBs forecast was actually rather good.

Peace & Cheers,

LI Phil