Really is dead as dead can be out there (excluding the WPAC of course...that's another story).

However, still a little bit interested in the long-run. Looking at the most recent GFS runs from today...it's still showing signs of a transition after July 10. What's most noticeable is that it develops a 1010MB low near 10摸/40斡 on Day 13 and maintains it for the next 3-4 days. Doesn't strengthen it much but when we're looking this far out that's not as important as just having a persistent low in the first place. Though I imagine it would have a fairly favorable environment for the time being as the model also shows an anticyclone aloft that moves in tandem with the low...which would help counter any westerly shear that may be present. Track-wise, the GFS takes it on a general WNW course and places it near 25摸/60斡 on Day 16.

Now I do want to stress that it's not as much as the low itself to pay attention to...but the overall pattern. Yes, the GFS is latching onto one particular wave...but it's so far out that it might as well be a different wave that develops. The point we're trying to make is...we're seeing signs that conditions in the Atlantic will change in the middle third of the upcoming month. The slow moving negative MJO currently over the WPAC should make it to the Atlantic by that time...which alone will help ripen the basin up. This and the fact that the GFS has consistently been indicating something is enough to raise an eyebrow.

It'd be foolish to actually forecast development this early in time...but it IS something to watch.