too many people out to rip off too many others

. Happy July 4th to everyone (including Ed wherever he is - btw Ed, give me back my access to "questionable"!!!)

Around the tropics this fine July 3rd we find TS Mindulle on its way to the Korean Peninsula. Otherwise 02NONAME in the EPAC got nudged off the shelf at NRL. It's remnant moisture will probably just head on west and die.

The Austrailian Government Board of Meteorology has released the June ENSO conditions and forecast. Coming as no surprise, the conditions are "Neutral". In the 5 month lead-time (and remember, we're in July where the skill gets better than in March-June), 3 of the models predict "WARM" conditions (LDEO4, JMA, SSES/OHIO). 8 models call for continued Neutral conditions and 1 is not available. In the 8 month lead time (which would put us in February 2005), 1 of 8 models reporting is calling for Warm while the other 7 favor continued Neutral.

Hurry! Hurry! Step righ this way...

As of yesterday, the high-res SST's (Actual) are running warmest off the West Coast of Florida (particularly the Keys), south of Cuba and across the Bahamas. Is this temporary or part of this season's water temperature evolution? How bout both?

High Res SST's

Southern Oscillation Index is neutral. Last 4 daily values have been 4.5, 3.5, -0.20 and 0.00. Probably a lull in the WESTPAC action for the next few days in response:

Long Paddock

NAO is neutral and forecast to remain roughly that way through the 15th of the month:

NAO Forecast from NCEP

PNA is neutral and forecast neutral to positive over the first 15 days of July.

PNA forecasted Neutral

The Artic Oscillation is negative, forecast to neutral and back to negative. You'll just have to take my word for it because I'm not providing the link

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Currently on the playing field are a few waves traversing the Atlantic, some troughiness off the SE Coast. The wave that moved off of Africa recently is the first one with the SW pointing outflow jet. That's always a good sign that hurricane nirvana is just around the corner.

Monsoon's still craking in India and there's a real colorful wave moving across the Indian Ocean if you have access to a colorized IR of there. I don't feel like digging through all my links.

Here's the visible showing the monsoon from India

Steve