Bonnie has weakened a bit, with a front near and with a bit of shear, this should keep it in check while it moves toward the coast. It still has another window to strengthen a bit, but it's very small.
Charley's track is still on from what we said earlier. Up the west coast of Florida South of Tampa (Most Likely between Cedar Key and Sarasota) into the peninsula and out the east side somewhere between Cape Canaveral and Jacksonville.
The big question is how Cuba and the other islands will affect the storm and how intense it will be when it gets near. The track is still not 100% in stone, of course, but I don't see any compelling trends or reasons to doubt the NHC's track at the moment.
Snonut also has some updates tonight
Hurricane Warnings up for Panhandle from Destin to the mouth of the Suwannee River for Bonnie.
Hurricane watch now in effect for the Southwest Coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach for Charley.
There is a mandatory evacuation for visitors and non-residents of the Florida Keys.
Governor Jeb Bush has also declared a state of emergency for florida, which activates a lot of Florida Emergency Management offices in preperation for possibly two storms making landfall over the next few days.
Bonnie up to 65MPH,
Charley now a Hurricane, still projected to impact the west coast of Florida on Friday. Watches will likely be up for more of the west coast of Florida later.
Lots to watch!
Apologies for the Downtime from appox 12:17PM to 2PM today, was a routing failure with our ISP and not the system itself. (Murphy's law)
Today, both are still Tropical Storms, Bonnie has strengthened a bit and the track still takes it toward the Panhandle. Charley is nearing Jamaica and right now the track takes it over western Cuba and through the peninsula of Florida.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for parts of the Panhandle and Alabama, and Hurricane Watches are up for the Panhandle to the big bend area. Hurricane Watches for Charley are up for the Florida Keys, and these watches may creep northward along the west coast later.
Therefore variations in track are paramount right now, and intensity of either system is going to be Critical. I do think those on the west coast of Florida will want to do some preliminary preperations and thinking.
I'm flying back down to Central Florida tomorrow and hopefully can update from there.
Updates will come as we get them.
Event Related Links
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.