First of all this storm is moving around 15 to 18 mph to the west. It has been on a track to the west or slightly north of west for the last 15 degrees. Since 25 west. It has moved very little north since then. The Gfs has shifted left every run since the 00z in now shows it skiming the northern leewards. What else is wrong with the gfs is it is moving at around 18 mph this thing is not going to slow down as much as the Gfs says. I say by tomarrow afternoon it will be around 45 maybe 46 west. This could just as easly fellow the southern hurricane models with this.

So this is my thinking it should not get pass 12 north intill 11pm tonight. Then should not pass 15 north intill nearing 60 west. I expect a cat1 hurricane with in the next 48 to 60 hours.

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