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They came out with the 11pm discussion very early tonight - I'm reading it now - and the intensity is still 35kt. Should make for some interesting results to the first track/intensity forecast of the storm! The 120hr position is ever-so-slightly to the left of the previous position, being just 1 degree further west than before (but no further north). The official track is still well left of the UKMET and well right of the GFS, agreeing with most of the other models and with most previous thinking. See no reason to disagree except to maybe nudge the track a bit further to the left...but not too much, maybe a degree or so. Intensity forecast...no qualms there either. Wish I had more to add, but classes have begun here once again and those late night hours of a week or two ago have come and gone, unfortunately. |