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Here's the discussion about the SC disturbance from the Wilmington NWS. Models all over the place, but no real mention of tropical features: MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ETA FINALLY RECOGNIZES THERE IS INDEED SOMETHING OUT THERE PAST 12 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST. IT TAKES THE LOW SW INTO N FL. THE GFS TAKES THE SYSTEM WNW UP THE SAVANNAH RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ETA SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR TO SLIDE SOUTH AND DRY OUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BEGINNING FRIDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP MUCH MORE OF THE AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR SHOWERS. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW SINCE THE ETA WAS SO UNRELIABLE YESTERDAY AND GO WITH 20-40 POPS MOST AREAS IN THE SHORT TERM. |