| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 09:37 PM |
|
Re: New Orleans area forcast.... long term
|
Quote:True enough. The NHC just sent this exerpt: THE NHC RUNNING TRACK ERRORS THROUGH 28/18Z ARE
NO area forecast this afternoon.....hmmmm
THE TRACK OF THE VERY STRONG HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WHICH MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AFTER DAY 7...NEXT SATURDAY.
Well Sir Frances has gotten their attention ..... as I'm sure its going to get quite a few of the different area's long term forecast's attention..... you can't rule out the GOM at this time... maybe later in the week, but right now you can't rule out anything...
44...71...AND 104 NMI AT 24-...48-...AND 72-HR...RESPECTIVELY.
THESE ERRORS ARE HALF OUR AVERAGE ERRORS...AND ARE BETTER THAN ALL
OF THE COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THEREFORE
...WE HAVE A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST TRACK...WHICH
REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UKMET MODEL TO
THE NORTH.
which to me says they are now pretty sure of themselves and apparantly taking the GFS pretty seriously as a solution. Maybe it is time I start to 'buy-in' to that myself. I'll admit, I thought the Floyd scenereo was most likely, but I'm now less sure of that....'bout to be convinced otherwised.