Interesting day in the tropics. Frances turned IV, Gaston got named and is probably headed for hurricane status tomorrow daytime, and 98L (or whatever it is now) look to be on the way. I wish I could cut and paste all the chaos Bastardi's got up toady. He's touched on everything from a triple pin-wheel solution to a westerly trend in the models to Frances missing the US to the east. There are a lot of options. Great stuff and well worth a 30 day free trial even if you don't renew.

I'm still thinking South Carolina with Gaston (pretty evident). I originally had it going in as a potentially strong tropical storm. Though it could approach hurricane status, my hunch is that it gets up between 55-70mph before landfall. It's also doing a good job of chilling the waters off the Carolinas' coasts which could be key in the future should Frances follow my idea and head for southern North Carolina. TD #8/98L or whatever it is is probably coming west with the ridge but at a farther north lattitude. I can't say if it will make landfall, play fujiwara or become absorbed into a frontal trof and become extratropical. Interesting week ahead. I predict lots of people find ways to steer the storm in their own direction.

Welcome back Robert. And rickonboat, I like your solution as usual. One of these days.../pinkfloyd

TPS