12Z of the Nogaps is out and it shows a path thru the bahamas and into WPB (area) and across the state around 310dg near Tampa. This is consistant with the past run.
96hour GFS is 100 miles east of WPB near Freeport BAH and moving NW. ( note also again at the start of this that by 8pm eastern tonight it has Frances near 22N already, if this is already initialized as a early jump before its real movement, the placement of the hurricane might be 50-75 miles more sw of where the plots are) This might be then in agreement with the Nogaps position 96hrs out just offshore of WPB. 1 more update to come. scottsvb