"what the models are now plotting does not conform to the Herbert Box theory that any storm that passes below 20degreees N/ 60 degrees W would invariably affect southern Florida."

Hebert's theory - or whatever it's called - did NOT say that any storm in the box (which I believe is bordered by 15 & 20 N, and 55 & 60 W) would "invariably" (inevitably?) affect South Florida. Instead, Hebert noted that most intense hurricanes that affect South Florida and come from the east have passed in or near that box. However, the converse is NOT true; in other words, most storms that pass through that box do NOT affect South Florida. Thus, statistically speaking, although a storm going in the area of that box is more likely to affect S. Fla. than one that doesn't go through that box, it does not come close to being a guarantee. -Brad